This is a bright star and very red. B-V = 2.0 magnitudes! The rank is mediocre but not terrible. The path centerline cuts right across one of my regular sites: at Santa's Village in Scotts Valley. It passes south of Karl, but given the rank, a shift to his location would not be that surprising. He's above the north 1-sigma line by a few miles. The centerline also goes across Quail Hollow Ranch in Zyante.
Alt=42, Az=269 in Gemini. 2 degrees above left of M35 star cluster, in foot of Castor.
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Kirk from Deerfield Drive, me from my usual Santa's Village site. Both in Scotts Valley, and Karl from home, all got recordings. We agree there was no occultation visually at the time predicted, but I thought I saw a dip a few seconds later.
Clear skies, calm conditions, good stable seeing. The star did not look as bright as I thought it would, but it did look brighter than the C2A symbol showed, as a very red star should do. 1x looked too sketchy and a central hit would still be 12 integrations at 2x and so I chose 2x. Did not look like an event at the predicted time but possibly one a few seconds later.
3/15/26: Reduced. Got a definite 0.24s event in good agreement with Kirk's event time. A full 3 seconds after the predicted time. That's 6 diameters of the asteroid. That's a lot, and so we were very lucky that nearly all of that big error was in the along-track direction. A little were in the cross-track direction and either of us could have had misses.
NIE Test: 6.3 sigma
magDrop report: percentDrop: 85.2 magDrop: 2.072 +/- 0.967 (0.95 ci)
DNR: 2.52
D time: [07:04:34.1918]
D: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0128} seconds
D: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0395} seconds
D: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0973} seconds
R time: [07:04:34.4318]
R: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0128} seconds
R: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0395} seconds
R: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0973} seconds
Duration (R - D): 0.2400 seconds
Duration: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0200} seconds
Duration: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0485} seconds
Duration: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.1048} seconds
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I got a definite 0.5838s event for 2002 CV37, 2x from Deerfield Dr. in Scotts Valley. The midpoint was 7:04:34.2070, 3 sec later than the predicted 7:04:31
PyOTE NIE sigma distance 15.3.
magDrop report: percentDrop: 94.1 magDrop: 3.075 +/- 1.610 (0.95 ci)
DNR: 2.46
D time: [07:04:33.9151]
D: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0117} seconds
D: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0346} seconds
D: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0822} seconds
R time: [07:04:34.4989]
R: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0117} seconds
R: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0346} seconds
R: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0822} seconds
Duration (R - D): 0.5838 seconds
Duration: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0175} seconds
Duration: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0437} seconds
Duration: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0934} seconds
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Not impossible Karl might have a very short event but it would have to center at 7:04:35 to be considered a possible valid event. If his dip is centered elsewhere the odds are very high it's just noise.
Submitted, it looks clearly to be a miss, as was most likely from the chord position. So we have two positives and a miss; good constraints on this path.
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